Economy & Growth

Sri Lanka’s census warns of shrinking workforce, rising elderly burden

Sri Lanka is facing a demographic shift with a shrinking workforce and a looming elderly care crisis, preliminary data from the 15th Census of Population and Housing showed.

The census, conducted by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) using 35,000 enumerators equipped with tablets and smartphones, fixed the national population at 21,763,170.

“The census forms the basic plan for development activities during the coming ten years,” said Shyamalie Karunaratne, Director General of the DCS. “The findings provide detailed data on migration, education, and economic characteristics.”

Data showed that Sri Lanka has hit a landmark literacy rate of 97.4 percent and the gender gap in education diminished, with near-perfect parity between males and females in schools and universities.

Digital literacy has climbed to 67.6 percent, while laptop ownership has nearly quadrupled to 19.7 percent. This shift away from traditional landlines and desktop PCs suggests a more mobile and digitally-enabled population.

However, these gains are overshadowed by a fertility drop. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) fell to 1.3, far below the replacement level of 2.1 required to keep a population stable.

This trend is pushing the median age to 35, a five-year jump since 2012.

The data suggests that for the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, the elderly will soon outnumber children.

The most immediate red flag for policymakers is the labor market. A staggering 52.7 percent of the working-age population is economically inactive.

This is driven largely by a massive gender gap; over half of inactive women are restricted to domestic caregiving duties, unable to contribute to the formal economy.

The census also highlights a growing “widowhood gap.” Nearly 44.2 percent of women over the age of 65 are widowed, compared to just 10.5 percent of men.

With the rise of single-person households, officials warned that the country’s social safety nets are ill-prepared for the impending strain on elderly care.

Sri Lanka Census 2024: Key Economic & Demographic Indicators

1. The Demographic Crisis (Highest Priority)

Sri Lanka is transitioning from a “youthful” to an “Ageing” society at an alarming rate, threatening the future workforce and the sustainability of social safety nets.

Fertility dip

Total Fertility Rate (TFR): 1.3 (looks at the average number of children per woman in the entire population regardless of whether they are married)

Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR): 2.7 (TMFR focuses on women who are currently in a marital union or in other words the average number of children per married woman in the entire population)

Marriage Trends: Average age of marriage has risen to 29.2 for men and 25.6 for women.

Rapid Population Aging

Median Age: 35 years (Median Age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups: half the people are older than 35, and half are younger.)

Elderly Share (60+): Now 18.0% of the total population.

Aging Index: 87 (87 elderly per 100 children). This is expected to cross 100 soon, meaning the elderly will outnumber children for the first time in history.

Shifting Dependency

Child Dependency: 33.7 (Decreasing, indicating fewer future workers). (means that for every 100 working-age adults (ages 15–64) in Sri Lanka, there are approximately 34 children (under age 15) to be supported.)

Old-Age Dependency: 29.4 (Increasing, putting higher pressure on the current workforce to fund pensions/healthcare). (means that for every 100 working-age adults (ages 15–64) in Sri Lanka, there are nearly 30 elderly persons (age 60+) who are likely retired or out of the formal workforce.

2. Labor Force & Economic Participation

Despite high human capital, a significant portion of the productive-age population is not contributing to the formal economy.

Participation Rate: Only 47.3 percent of the working-age population is active.

The Gender Gap: Over 50% of females stayed at home due to domestic and caregiving duties.

Unemployment: National average is 6 percent, but regional disparities are sharp (10.1% in Batticaloa vs. 3.9 percent in Moneragala).

Migration: Over 672,000 Sri Lankans live abroad; 86 percent of them migrated for work, primarily to West Asia.

3. Vulnerability & Social Structure

The breakdown of the traditional family unit is leaving specific groups — particularly elderly women — at high risk.

The Widowhood Gap: 44.2 percent of women over 65 are widowed, compared to only 10.5 percent of men.

Living Alone: 10.5 percent of all households are single-person; This category comprises of 640,704 households; notably, 370,229 of these are aged 60 and over and of them majority are females (71.3 percent).

4. Education & Digital Literacy

Sri Lanka continues to lead in human capital indicators, with the gender gap nearly vanished in education.

National Literacy: 97.4 percent.

Gender Parity: The literacy gap has effectively closed (97.9 percent Male vs. 97.0 percent Female).

Digital Divide: While 67.6 percent are digitally literate, actual computer literacy is much lower at 34.7 percent.

5. Modernization & Living Standards

There is a distinct “tech leap” and energy shift occurring in Sri Lankan households.

Communication: A surge in laptops (up to 19.7 percent) while traditional landlines and desktops are disappearing.

Energy: LPG usage for cooking is now at 42.4 percent, though over half the country (55.4 percent) still relies on firewood.

Electricity: Near-universal access at 98.0 percent.

6. Population Distribution

Total Population: 21,781,800.