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SCL hike: SL’s maize importation plummets 64%

Sri Lanka’s maize importation has plummeted by 64% between January and July of 2026, compared to the same period last year, due to the Special Commodity Levy increase from Rs 25 per to Rs 50 per kilogram, according to a recent report released by SenFin Securities.

The report noted that Sri Lanka’s total maize imports for the period between January and July had been 64,200 MT, while the total imported in 2025 was 333,000 MT.

Further, the research unit noted that between January and August – a period observed to be a typical season for maize imports – Sri Lanka imported only 17.4k MT in the five months between February and June, before a partial restart of 33.8k MT in July.

The report cited the FAO cereals price index, which rose 17% in a year to 122.8 as of August 2026. It also noted that with the doubling of the Special Commodity Levy, “about USD 83/t extra” had landed in costs.

The report outlined three scenarios based on the timing of government import approvals. In the “quick approval” scenario, a quota approved in October with shipments landing in November would keep maize cost increases to 0-10% and broiler/egg cost increases to 0 - 4%.

Accordingly, GRAN (Ceylon Grain Elevators PLC) is expected to see festive demand lift sales with margins holding, TAFL (Three Acre Farms PLC) chick prices would firm with margins near 27%, and BFL’s (Bairaha Farms PLC) profit recovery would continue.

In the “late, piecemeal” scenario, small permits in November – December at the Rs 50 per kg levy would push maize costs up 10-25% and broiler/egg costs up 4-11%. GRAN’s stock and storage would let it pass costs on, TAFL would see fewer placements offset by higher chick prices, but BFL would be “squeezed most (debt, less stock)”.

In the “no relief until Maha” scenario, heavy rice substitution until February – March 2027 would push maize costs up 25%+ and broiler/egg costs up 11%+. GRAN’s volumes would fall with “risk of price ceilings”, TAFL’s weak placements would cut chick demand, and BFL’s profit “could fall back to its FY2024/25 near-loss”.

The report identified the next import approval as the primary signal to watch, noting that, “every other signal follows from the date and size of the quota”.