IMF sees Sri Lanka’s growth easing to 3.7% in 2027

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Sri Lanka’s economic growth to moderate to 3.7% in 2027, according to its latest World Economic Outlook.

The IMF forecast comes as the World Bank recently upgraded its outlook for Sri Lanka, raising its 2026 growth forecast to 4.4% from the 3.6% it projected in April. However, it warned that the recovery remains uneven. Poverty is still above pre-crisis levels, and real wages are about 12% below 2019 levels.

The IMF projects inflation of 5.4% and an unemployment rate of 3.9% for 2027.

The forecasts cover the closing stages of Sri Lanka’s IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program which is expected to end in March 2027.

For the world economy, the IMF forecasts growth of 3.1% in 2026, picking up to 3.4% in 2027. It expects global headline inflation to rise to 4.7% this year before easing to 4.1% in 2027. The IMF attributed the rise in inflation to the wars in Ukraine and West Asia, which have driven sharp increases in energy and other commodity prices, and to significant changes in trade barriers