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NCPI unchanged at 8.1% in Sept.

National inflation held steady at 8.1% year-on-year (YoY) in September 2026, unchanged from August, as higher food prices offset a decline in non-food costs, according to the latest National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) data released by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS) yesterday.

The NCPI (Base: 2021=100) rose to 224.2 points in September from 223.9 in August. That was a month-on-month (MoM) increase of 0.3 index points or 0.11%, the smallest monthly rise of the year, and corresponds to a rise of Rs. 123.85 in the expenditure value of the market basket.

The September reading halts a run of six consecutive monthly increases in YoY inflation, which had climbed from 1.6% in February to 8.1% in August. The 12-month moving average kept rising, however, reaching 4.5% from 4.1% in August. This smoother gauge compares the average index over the past 12 months with that of the preceding 12 months.

Food inflation rose to 6.9% YoY from 6.6% in August, its highest in at least a year, while non-food inflation eased to 9.1% from 9.3%. Non-food items nonetheless remained the larger driver of the headline rate, contributing 5.00 percentage points to the 8.1% figure, against 3.11 percentage points from food.

Within non-food, Transport was the biggest single contributor, adding 2.20 percentage points to annual inflation. Petrol alone accounted for 1.05 percentage points, followed by Bus Fare at 0.36, Transport for Schooling/Preschooling at 0.19 and Diesel at 0.17. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels added 1.17 percentage points, led by Housing Rent (0.46 points), Materials for Maintenance (0.30 points) and LP Gas (0.23 points). Restaurants and Hotels (0.51 points), Education (0.34 points) and Miscellaneous Goods and Services (0.28 points) also contributed.

On the food side, the annual increase was driven by Fresh Fish (0.64 points), Dried Fish (0.42 points), Big Onions (0.39 points), Vegetables (0.32 points) and Green Chillies (0.28 points). Declines in Coconuts (-0.48 points) and Rice (-0.23 points) partly offset these gains.

On a MoM basis, food items added 0.19% to the index, while non-food items subtracted 0.08%.